Original Articles

Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa

Published in: African Journal of AIDS Research
Volume 2 , issue 1 , 2003 , pages: 1–8

DOI: 10.2989/16085906.2003.9626554

Author(s): ThomasM. Rehle , USA , Olive Shisana , South Africa

Keywords: AIDS mortality , demographic impact , HIV prevalence , modelling

Abstract

The Epidemic Projection Package (EPP) recently developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS. The national HIV prevalence surveys among pregnant women from 1990–2001 and the first national, population-based HIV survey in 2002 served as the data sets used to calibrate the input HIV prevalence values for the model.

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