Uncertainty and incomplete information in the evaluation of building projects

Abstract

Deterministic methods of price forecasting and viability analysis for construction projects do not adequately cater for uncertainty and incomplmplete information. Developers and other investors in property, acting solely on the deterministic advice of professional building cost consultants (such as quantity surveyors), may make inappropriate investment decisions which are less realistic than might be considered desirable. Probabilistic methodologies, and in particular expert systems, a form of artificial intelligence, permit the explicit treatment of uncertainty and incomplete information, and the contribution of these techniques towards the assessment of risk should lead to more realistically grounded investment decisions.