Original Articles

Predicting the social consequences of orphanhood in South Africa

Published in: African Journal of AIDS Research
Volume 2 , issue 1 , 2003 , pages: 39–55

DOI: 10.2989/16085906.2003.9626558

Author(s): Rachel Bray Centre for Social Science Research, Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus, South Africa

Keywords: child well-being , evidence , HIV/AIDS , social breakdown , vulnerability

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Abstract

This paper examines and questions the predictions found in the academic and policy literature of social breakdown in southern Africa in the wake of anticipated high rates of orphanhood caused by the AIDS epidemic. Analysis of the logic underlying these predictions reveals four causal relationships necessary to fulfil such dramatic and apocalyptic predictions:

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