Evaluating different wheat production strategies for the Orange Free State using stochastic dominance techniques and a crop growth model

Abstract

A wheat crop growth model and stochastic dominance techniques were used to evaluate several wheat production strategies for the Orange Free State. Fifty seasonal grain yields and corresponding gross margins were calculated from daily weather data and soil data for each of five localities in the Orange Free State. Forty-five different strategies were tested at each locality. Strategies investigated were cultivar type, planting date and seeding rate. Highest long-term average yields were obtained at Bethlehem followed by Kroonstad, Wepener, Glen and Fauresmith. May, June and July plantings stochastically dominated other planting dates, and planting of winter type wheat generally dominated intermediate and spring wheat. Seeding rate had little influence on calculated production risk.